Could we see Bonnie soon?

Looks like the wave near the Dominican Republic could become Bonnie and pose a threat to Florida, but this morning it is looking less impressive on Satellite but more impressive on models. Recon and NOAA flights scheduled for today.

Status of the Tropics

The tropics remain somewhat unfavorable for tropical development. This could or will change in August but there will be a lot of moisture down in the Caribbean and we could see some development down there this week, but the systems still have some turbulent upper air patterns.

System almost a tropuical storm

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE

TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE

DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD

OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE

BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM

WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN

LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY

WATCHES OR WARNINGS

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System almost a tropical storm!

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4 Disturbances being watched by NHC!

The one is the SW Caribbean looks the best - but there are a few more out there.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

2 Invests out there!

The Tropics have another Invest that came to light last evening. I think the low in the Gulf is a done deal and will head onto shore later today. The System in the lower Caribbean needs some watching and just may be the next system to threaten Mexico or Texas! Some models do show it strengthening, but it will take some time to get a true sense of what it will do. I am suspecting it will make it to Tropical Depression status.