Special Tropical Disturbance Discussion

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162008
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

Could we see Bonnie soon?

Looks like the wave near the Dominican Republic could become Bonnie and pose a threat to Florida, but this morning it is looking less impressive on Satellite but more impressive on models. Recon and NOAA flights scheduled for today.

Status of the Tropics

The tropics remain somewhat unfavorable for tropical development. This could or will change in August but there will be a lot of moisture down in the Caribbean and we could see some development down there this week, but the systems still have some turbulent upper air patterns.

System almost a tropuical storm

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE

TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE

DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD

OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE

BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM

WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN

LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY

WATCHES OR WARNINGS

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System almost a tropical storm!

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4 Disturbances being watched by NHC!

The one is the SW Caribbean looks the best - but there are a few more out there.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

2 Invests out there!

The Tropics have another Invest that came to light last evening. I think the low in the Gulf is a done deal and will head onto shore later today. The System in the lower Caribbean needs some watching and just may be the next system to threaten Mexico or Texas! Some models do show it strengthening, but it will take some time to get a true sense of what it will do. I am suspecting it will make it to Tropical Depression status.

TS Alex is up to 65 mph winds!

A hurricane hunter aircraft found he had strengthened up but he will
not get any stronger before landfall as that is happening now. He will
emerge in gulf and re-strengthen and possibly become the first
Hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Of note a wave is being monitored north of the lesser Antilles and a
very strong wave is emerging off Africa. The one off Africa really
looks big now!

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Tropical storm Alex

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (corrected)Sat, 26 Jun 2010 07:00:51 -0500000

ABNT20 KNHC 261200

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CORRECTED TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE

ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY

AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE

SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER

WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND

UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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TD#1

Atlantic Tropical Depression ONE Special Discussion Number 1Fri, 25
Jun 2010 17:16:57 -0500000

WTNT41 KNHC 252216

TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE

DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED

CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004

MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING

INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE

AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT

REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER

LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE

TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF

INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS

300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF

MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH

SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE

DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING

THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND

GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE

SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY

BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT

120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

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