Monday, August 16, 2010
Special Tropical Disturbance Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 162008
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Could we see Bonnie soon?
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Status of the Tropics
Monday, July 05, 2010
System almost a tropuical storm
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS
--
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Sunday, July 04, 2010
4 Disturbances being watched by NHC!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif
2 Invests out there!
Saturday, June 26, 2010
TS Alex is up to 65 mph winds!
not get any stronger before landfall as that is happening now. He will
emerge in gulf and re-strengthen and possibly become the first
Hurricane of the Atlantic season.
Of note a wave is being monitored north of the lesser Antilles and a
very strong wave is emerging off Africa. The one off Africa really
looks big now!
--
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Tropical storm Alex
ABNT20 KNHC 261200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
CORRECTED TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
--
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Friday, June 25, 2010
TD#1
Jun 2010 17:16:57 -0500000
WTNT41 KNHC 252216
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.
THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
--
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Thursday, June 24, 2010
System getting better organized
ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
--
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Invest 93L could be the first tropical system
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
I will keep you posted.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
ABNT20 KNHC 161730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
T
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROW
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Tropics growing quiet again!
ABNT20 KNHC 152340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
--
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Disturbance has been downgraded - unlikely to see a TD or TS!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME
LIMITED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Monday, June 14, 2010
System is less organized
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLA
Best bet on 92L
Another wave will be on its heels!
All for now!
Tropical Storm Alex does not look too far off - what next
Some opposing views on what will happen next - I suspect a Tropical storm, but it looks liek some wind shear may affect it.
Some thoughts and information -
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/
Raleigh Weather -
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2010m6d14-Invest-92-nearing-depression-strength-but-shear-ahead-limit-chances
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Sunday, June 13, 2010
NHC Has moved risk for Invest 92L to A Moderate Risk for Depression or storm
ABNT20 KNHC 131730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
Saturday, June 12, 2010
NHC Has this at a medium risk of Development
ABNT20 KNHC 130521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAK
The Tropics are showing some signs of waking up!
2010 will be a very tough season!