Of note a wave is being monitored north of the lesser Antilles and a
very strong wave is emerging off Africa. The one off Africa really
looks big now!
--
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ABNT20 KNHC 261200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
CORRECTED TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
--
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WTNT41 KNHC 252216
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.
THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
--
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ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
--
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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
T
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROW
--
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ABNT20 KNHC 152340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
--
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME
LIMITED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141739
