System getting better organized

000

ABNT20 KNHC 242332

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS

AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE

PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN

INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY

BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A

COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

--
Sent from my mobile device

System is looking better -

--
Sent from my mobile device

Invest 93L could be the first tropical system

Tomorrow at 2pm the first Hurricane Hunter recon will fly into 93L. The latest models are showing a possible Gulf Coast hit early next week. The current models say Texas to Louisiana are a possible hit.All this is models except the system which can be looked at here http://www.midatlanticweather.com/tropical/tropics.htm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I will keep you posted.

Tropics are quiet!

Not much to talk about!

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Sent from my mobile device

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
ABNT20 KNHC 161730

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE POORLY

ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE

FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
T
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROW

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Tropics growing quiet again!

Atlantic Tropical Weather OutlookTue, 15 Jun 2010 18:40:50 -0500000

ABNT20 KNHC 152340

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

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Disturbance has been downgraded - unlikely to see a TD or TS!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME
LIMITED THIS MORNING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

System is less organized

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141739

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLA

Best bet on 92L

It will likely be a depression and I think a tropical Storm - it will be teh Earliest Hurricane that far east if it does. After a few days strong shear will tear it apart.

Another wave will be on its heels!

All for now!

Tropical Storm Alex does not look too far off - what next

The satellite imagery is looking impressive -

Some opposing views on what will happen next - I suspect a Tropical storm, but it looks liek some wind shear may affect it.

Some thoughts and information -

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

Raleigh Weather -

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2010m6d14-Invest-92-nearing-depression-strength-but-shear-ahead-limit-chances


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

TS Alex possible in the next 2 days!

NHC Has moved risk for Invest 92L to A Moderate Risk for Depression or storm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131730

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

NHC Has this at a medium risk of Development

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130521

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAK

The Tropics are showing some signs of waking up!

Quite an impressive early season system out there is showing signs of strengthening. It is way out there and very low altitude. I will keep watching.

2010 will be a very tough season!

Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH


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Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH


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Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH



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Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280525
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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