Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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