Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130555
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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