Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
FRED...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF FRED CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA TO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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